Some thoughts based on the New Hampshire results:
- “Electability” is this campaign’s version of “gravitas”. It seems to be used a minimum of once per newscast.
- There have been record (or near-record) turnouts for the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary. Primaries are often plagued by low voter turnout: when one party is a shoe-in, that party’s voters don’t bother, and in states without open primaries, people not registered to vote in the “interesting” race (Democrats, this time around) don’t get to participate in the main part of the vote, so they often don’t vote at all. This time, though, voters are turning out in “droves” (whatever those are). This implies two things: (1) people are interested in who wins the Democratic nomination, and (2) regardless of what the approval rating polls say, people want “regime change”. Assuming these turnouts carry forward throughout the election season, the Republicans should be worried: if Democrats turn out in record numbers for the general election in November and Republicans don’t, Bush will be in real trouble.
- NPR was carrying the election returns (plus commentary) live last night. The conservative talk shows seem to be almost going out of their way to avoid any mention of the Democratic primaries. Maybe that’s because their main whipping dog (Dean) isn’t so prominent any more and they haven’t decided if they need to replace him. Or maybe they fear that “any publicity is good publicity,” and covering things at all would be akin to aiding the enemy. Me, I just find it interesting what seems to constitute a “big” story and what does not.
- Unless he wins at least two states on Tuesday — wins, not comes in third after removing candidates from neighboring states — Lieberman will drop out. [He did on February 3.]
- Unless he wins South Carolina, Sharpton will also drop out on Tuesday evening. [He didn’t drop out until March.]
- Clark will drop out around March 1. [He dropped on February 11.] Despite his poor showing, Kucinich will also stay in until then, just to offer an extreme left voice. [He stayed in all the way to July 22, just before the Democratic National Convention.]
- Dean will win in Arizona, New Mexico, and North Dakota [he took only Vermont]; Kerry will take Missouri [he took that and almost everything else]; Edwards will get South Carolina [he also took North Carolina]; and Clark will win Oklahoma [correct]. Okay, I’m mostly just flailing around on this one. [Full results here.]
- I’m trying to figure out what ticket combo “feels” best in the mouth. I’m inclined to say that “Dean/Kerry” rolls off the tongue best. (Well, maybe “Dean/Clark”, but then people would ask why the American Bandstand guy was running for President. Or maybe it’s that guy who played Superman with Teri Hatcher?)
Updated on December 3, 2010
Added a lot of links to how things played out.
No comments:
Post a Comment