Wednesday, February 4, 2004

Selection 2004: Sidekick to Super Tuesday

I don’t see any real surprises out of the seven primaries and caucuses (cauci?) on February 3.
  • Correctly predicting Lieberman out after last night was no big deal.  As expected, Kucinich remains in the race despite poor showings, mostly because he has a unique message to get out which is lost if he drops out.  Probably the same thing with Sharpton.  Good for them.  (I expect both to drop in early March, though.)  [Sharpton dropped in March, Kucinish stayed in all the way to July.]
  • Dean’s showing was far poorer than I expected.  I still attribute this mostly to the severe ill will wished upon him by the press in the week prior to Iowa.  I suspect that his hope now is that the press decides to attack Kerry (again; they did at the end of last year somewhat, too, in the name of punching up Dean).  Of course, that will serve mostly to anoint Edwards or Clark, not bring Dean back to the top; when the press kicks you off the top of the hill, you don’t slip back just a single step.  If the attack dogs focus on Kerry, though, Dean will probably see more benefit from it than the others, though.
I don’t have anything against Kerry.  I’m sure he’ll be a fine candidate, if that’s how things settle out.  On the other hand, I’m not fired up about him in the least; I don’t see anything to say he has any particular chance to beat Bush.

Updated on February 18, 2004

Updated on December 7, 2010
And indeed, my thoughts on Kerry held true: bland, and the only reason to get behind him was to get behind someone, anyone but Bush.  At least the Democrats broke out of that deadly boring cycle with Obama.

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